1/15/2026
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Posted in Canadian Housing Market by Vanguard Realty | Back to Main Blog Page
Canada’s housing market headed into 2026 with more opportunity than urgency, as lower borrowing costs met wary buyers and uneven regional price trends.
With the usual fall rush failing to materialize amid continuing US-Canada trade tensions and economic uncertainty, the national aggregate home price slipped year over year in the fourth quarter, Royal LePage highlighted.
Toronto and Vancouver saw noteworthy declines, while the Greater Montreal Area was one of the most prominent major centres to eke out growth.
‘Goldilocks’ inventory, but muted urgency
“Despite subdued activity levels, home prices largely held their ground in the final quarter of 2025,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage, pointing to “economic uncertainty – driven by trade disputes and broader geopolitical tensions” as a drag on consumer confidence.
“Instead of a fall seasonal surge, we saw a quieter close to the year,” he said.
Soper added that buyers entering the spring market have “lower borrowing costs, stable or lower property prices, and choice,” describing inventory levels as “Goldilocks healthy” and calling it “a genuine window of opportunity, particularly for first-time buyers in Canada’s most expensive markets.”
Condo segments in Toronto and Vancouver remained under the most pressure, with elevated inventory, a pullback from small investors and reduced rental demand after immigration caps and tighter quotas for temporary residents.
“Condominium markets in major urban centres remain under pressure, as weaker demand continues to collide with increased supply,” Soper said.
Spring expected to simmer, not surge
The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate four times in 2025, to 2.25%, and is expected to stay on hold after inflation hovered near the lower end of its target band.
“Borrowing rates have moved back toward a more neutral setting – neither stimulating nor acting as a drag on economic activity,” Soper said. “For homebuyers and those approaching a mortgage renewal, stability matters.”
Royal LePage projected only a 1.0% rise in the national aggregate price by Q4 2026, with single-family homes up 2.0% and condos down 2.5%, and further price compression between high-cost hubs and the rest of the country.
Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional
Canada Real Estate, Canadian Home Sales, Canadian Housing Market, Canadian Housing Market Slowdown, Canadian Real Estate Market Outlook, Condo Buyers, First Time Home Buyers, Home Buyers
