2/10/2026
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Posted in Canadian Housing Market Predictions by Vanguard Realty | Back to Main Blog Page
Canada’s housing market entered 2026 in a holding pattern: mortgage rates likely near their cyclical floor, but affordability still sharply constrained, according to a new Desjardins outlook. The report pointed to a “fragile recovery phase” in both resale and construction, with risks tilted toward stagnation rather than another boom.
In the existing‑home market, Desjardins said sales are expected to “recover gradually in 2026,” after a stop‑start 2024–25 period shaped first by rate cuts and then by trade uncertainty.
Provinces that entered 2025 with lower home prices relative to incomes “generally saw stronger price growth, underscoring the role of affordability in shaping demand dynamics,” the report said.
Nationally, the economists projected “modest” price gains and home sales rising toward roughly 500,000 deals by 2027, still well below pandemic peaks.
Mortgage rates steadied – but pain persisted
Desjardins said mortgage rates “declined meaningfully from their 2022–23 peaks but have settled well above the level of any point since the Global Financial Crisis – and they aren’t expected to ease further in 2026.” That view echoes earlier Desjardins commentary that the Bank of Canada’s easing cycle has largely run its course, leaving borrowers facing a long stretch of merely “stable, but not cheap” money.
Variable‑rate borrowers, who enjoyed steep discounts through 2024–25, also face a tougher landscape. In a prior economic viewpoint, Desjardins economist Hendrix Vachon warned that “the recent enthusiasm for variable rate mortgages may wane in 2026, especially if borrowers start anticipating new rate increases” and that “for 2026, the outlook is currently less favourable for variable rates.”
Rental builds carries the supply load
On the supply side, Desjardins said purpose‑built rental construction is “anticipated to remain the strongest contributor to housing supply growth in 2026,” helping offset weaker ownership‑oriented building.
Even so, total housing starts are “poised to remain well below” the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s aspirational target of up to 480,000 units annually – the level CMHC estimated would be needed to restore 2019‑era affordability.
In 2024, Desjardins said Canadians should not expect affordability “to bounce back to pre‑pandemic levels anytime soon,” even with some rate relief, citing weak income growth and structural supply shortages.
Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional
Home Buyers, House Prices, Housing Affordability, Housing Market Forecast, Interest Rate Forecast
