Canadian Home Prices See Sudden End to Declines in Advance of Spring Market

  3/18/2024 |   SHARE
Posted in Canadian Housing Market by Vanguard Realty | Back to Main Blog Page

Canadian home prices as measured by the seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) were flat on a month-over-month basis in February 2024, ending a streak of five declines that began last fall, according to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

The fact that prices were unchanged from January to February was noteworthy given they had dropped 1.3% from December to January. Considering how stable the seasonally adjusted MLS® HPI tends to be, shifts this abrupt are exceedingly rare. (Chart A)

There have only been three other times in the last 20 years that have shared a sudden improvement or increase in the month-over-month percentage change from one month to the next of this size; all at various points in the last four years when demand was coming off the sidelines.

“It’s looking like February may end up being the last relatively uneventful month of the year as far as the 2024 housing story goes,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “With so much demand having piled up on the sidelines, the story will likely be less about the exact timing of interest rate cuts and more about how many homes come up for sale this year.”

Highlights:

• National home sales dipped 3.1% month-over-month in February.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 19.7% above February 2023.
• The number of newly listed properties edged up 1.6% month-over-month.
• The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was flat month-over-month and was up 0.8% year-over-year.
• The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price posted a 3.5% year-over-year increase in February.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions came in 19.7% above February 2023. Part of that double-digit gain reflects the fact that February 2023 sales were one of the lowest for that month in the past two decades, but it also reflects the fact that current activity has climbed back to only around 5% below the 10-year average.

The number of newly listed homes edged up 1.6% on a month-over-month basis in February. Gains may rise in the months ahead depending on how many owners are preparing to list their properties for sale this spring.

“After two years of mostly quiet resale housing activity there’s a feeling that things are about to pick up,” said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA. “At this point, it’s hard to know whether buyers are going to wait for a signal from the Bank of Canada or whether they’re just waiting for the spring listings to hit the market. Either way, neither of those are likely too far off, so if you’re hoping to buy or sell a property in 2024, contact a REALTOR® in your area today,” continued Cerqua.

With sales edging down and new listings inching up in February, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased a bit to 55.6%. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets respectively.

There were 3.8 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of February 2024, up a touch from 3.7 months at the end of January. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.

Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems dipped 3.1% between January and February 2024, giving back some of the cumulative 12.7% increase in activity recorded in December 2023 and January 2024. That said, the general trend has been somewhat higher levels of activity over the last three months compared to a quiet fall market in 2023. (Chart B)

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $685,809 in February 2024, up 3.5% from February 2023.

Source: CREA

Canada Real Estate, Canadian Home Sales, Canadian Housing Market, CREA