3/3/2026
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Posted in Rental Market by Vanguard Realty | Back to Main Blog Page
After years of punishing rent hikes, Canada’s rental market in 2026 appeared to be catching its breath. National vacancy rose to 3.1%, immigration slowed, and landlords leaned more on incentives, according to liv.rent’s 2026 Canada Rental Market Trend Report.
Beneath that more comfortable surface, however, the report pointed to a pipeline problem that could matter far more for lenders and developers than a single year’s vacancy reading.
Apartment starts in 2025 were reported to have plunged 80% in Toronto and 7% in Vancouver. Between 2022 and 2024, cancelled units were said to have increased fivefold in Toronto and tenfold in Vancouver. Together, those trends raised the risk of another rental supply crunch as early as 2028.
“2026 may feel more balanced for renters, but current construction and cancellation trends point to reduced supply later this decade,” said Matisse Yiu, head of marketing at liv.rent.
“Even under moderated immigration targets, falling construction activity could set up renewed rental tightening by 2028–2030.”
Slower population growth, sharper regional divergences
liv.rent’s analysis suggested immigration dropped 18% year over year in 2025 and that Canada recorded a net loss of 290,392 non‑permanent residents, with Ontario and British Columbia accounting for nearly 70% of emigration.
It also highlighted a 6% decline in interprovincial migration and an estimated 95,733 Canadians leaving the country in 2025, described as the highest level since 2011.
British Columbia was said to have posted negative population growth for the first time since 2012 and a 5% decline in housing starts. Ontario’s housing starts were reported to have fallen 17% year over year, with a 9% drop in apartment construction and record emigration.
Alberta, by contrast, still drew strong inflows, even as interprovincial migration to the province dropped 16% from 2024 and housing starts leaned more heavily on apartments.
Nova Scotia was described as second only to Alberta in net interprovincial inflows, while housing starts climbed to 8,732 units, ranking the province fifth nationally.
Quebec, meanwhile, led the country in housing starts with a 32% year‑over‑year gain, even as emigration from the province rose 21% to its highest level since 2017.
Landlords, renters and AI: A market searching for balance
Survey responses from more than 750 renters and landlords captured a wide credibility gap on the economics of rental housing.
“Nine in ten renters believe landlords are profitable,” the report found, while “43% [of] landlords report that current rents do not cover expenses.”
Only one in six renters and landlords used AI tools, and while 74% of landlords reported time savings, renter experiences were mixed.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) similarly reported slowing housing starts in Ontario and B.C., with condo pre‑sales weakening and more projects delayed or cancelled as financing tightened and immigration targets were reduced.
CMHC also warned that condo construction slowdowns could weigh on total starts through 2027, even as purpose‑built rental remained a relative bright spot.
A late‑cycle rental squeeze would not be new to this market. Stalled homebuilding, particularly in Greater Toronto and Metro Vancouver, threatens to come up short of demand and cast a long shadow over economic recovery.
Source: Canadian Mortgage Professional
Canadian Rental Market, Toronto Rental Market
